Since the deadly explosion on 20 April 2010, and subsequent sinking of the Deepwater Horizon drilling rig on 22 April 2010, we’ve been monitoring and contributing to coverage of the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico. The story quickly took on international dimensions, BP (formerly British Petroleum), initially labeled the primary party responsible clean up costs and damages, operated the exploratory Deepwater Horizon on lease from Transocean, a Swiss-based company. While the accident remains under investigation, the finger pointing and attempts to fix blame and legal liability immediately began between BP, Transocean, and other companies.
Relying on expert colleagues — ranging from marine biologists to senior engineers with experience, access, and insight into the offshore drilling disaster and the fight to contain the leak at sea — LernerMedia creates, contributes to, and coordinates science-related coverage for a number of media outlets.
News and photos of the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico dominated news racks and media broadcasts in Cannes, France, and across Europe. ©2010 LernerMedia
From what we can discern from Europe, the initial coverage in the United States quickly became a political football related to offshore drilling. While that is inevitable, it was hard to find fact-based reporting that did not inevitably spin into political posturing (the spin masters for both pro-drilling and anti-drilling interests were obviously hard at work). In Europe , we hope that in some very small way that our modest efforts have helped better focus initial attention on determining the exact details of the engineering disaster (facts important to creating an effective response) and the globally catastrophic environmental impacts of the spill. The impact of this spill will range far beyond damage to fragile wetlands ecosystems and already beleaguered communities along the Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Florida Gulf Coasts.
Because of the magnitude of the spill (and an unanticipated, exiting, new book project set to start this week) some ongoing projects and developmental production work is being reassigned to trusted colleagues. This will free us over the next few months to focus on continuing to provide fact-based science content and analysis (and, of course, Brenda provides health impact analysis). We have also been asked to shift gears in order to evaluate and/or collaborate on a number production and documentary projects. As always, colleagues can keep up with news and opportunities to contribute to projects at our secure forum site.
At this point, our focus remains on helping our publishing and production clients understand and critically evaluate the vast amounts of scientific data produced by DOI, EPA, NOAA, NASA, BP, and what will soon be a bewildering array of federal, state, and NGO sources. In addition to producing fact-based content. We are also asked to make recommendations about contracting and coordinating coverage of the spill at the local level. We have, quite literally, already received and evaluated hundreds of links to scientist blogs, environmental reporter sites, and citizen journalist’s coverage of the spill. Within days of the rig explosions, an army of talented people were on scene producing blog posts, YouTube videos, Twitter feeds, etc. The usual ephemera exists, but some of these resources offer unique and insightful information that many major media outlets don’t have the time, resources, or inclination to report.
We recommend that colleagues evaluate and balance information obtained from a variety of media sources.
As always, part of our job is to help our professional clients identify genuine signal within the noise. One of our highest priorities remains the accurate translation of sometimes complex science and engineering concepts into content that enhances understanding and critical evaluation of the news by students and lay audiences.
We plan to wrap up work (which yesterday moved into Italy) on the continent as soon as possible and after a set of meetings in London, we hope to be back at the Gulf Coast by mid-month. Alas, it increasingly appears that the most optimistic projections (e.g., lowest-end estimates of the rate of leakage, time projections for engineering alternatives, etc.) combined with most dedicated efforts to mitigate damage will fail to prevent a large scale environmental catastrophe.
If is also inevitable that people, equipment, and plans will fail. One of the first things we checked following the explosion was for the catastrophic spill contingency plans on file with the Minerals Management Service (MMS) of the DOI. we expected it to be a game plan by which we could evaluate both government and industry response. We made our initial inquiries on 22 April 2010 but have yet to find documentation of such a contingency plan. If indeed the MMS ruled that, in part, because of the distance from shore no contingency plan was necessary, that would be unconscionable from a scientific and engineering standpoint.
Regardless of how marvelously the engineers perform (and given the challenging environment ANY engineering fix would be a technological marvel) the spill is already significant. Even under the best scenarios where oil stays largly out to sea or is dispersed, there will be both environmental and economic costs. One storm can change things in a matter of hours. As I advised one of our publishing clients on 27 April, “I am very skeptical of the (early) minimal impact assessments. They are self-serving to too many interests as there has been no time to make scientific estimation. I know these ocean models very well. They fix a number if variables to come up with snap models. The Gulf also presents a complex microbiology, well adapted to petroleum waste (not of, course, normally at this scale), and while the Gulf is robust in some regards, there are tipping points. There are also delicate and fragile ecosystem components.”
Regardless the outcome, this disaster should result in robust inquiry and debate about the real costs and perils of drilling, and hopefully increase our determination toward development of alternative and clean energy resources. But we also live in an oil dependent world, and that will not change soon. The engineering complexities related to deep water drilling are rivaled only by space exploration. The technological feats are magnificent, the failures deadly and foreboding to contemplate.
As we are under contract to several media outlets, we will not be posting editorial workproduct or related analysis about the spill in this journal. I anticipate, however, that we will eventually offer some personal observation, insights, and opinions.
We currently plan to use our Bellessima B. to provide offshore photos, footage, and as a platform for documentary exploration of both offshore and and onshore impacts of the spill. Bella will allow us to range the Gulf Coast from Texas to the Florida Panhandle. However, although we are experienced blue water sailors, we know not to underestimate the dangers presented by tranquil bays and inland waterways moved to quickly violent by churning winds. In addition to sailing in the Gulf, Mobile Bay, Pensacola Bay, and the Mississippi Sound present unique challenges (including navigational challenges related to changes brought about by Hurricanes Ivan, Katrina, Gustav and other recent severe storms. Very few people have real experience with the special hazards presented by operations in fouled water (e.g. clogged intakes that can impair generators needed for shipboard operations and for media and communications equipment. Accordingly, we are seeking and appealing for expert advice regarding “blackwater” operations.
Suddenly, being “stranded” by the Iceland volcano while on a working in Europe is less amusing. Along with Texas, the U.S. Gulf Coast is our home. We raised our children there, the last learning to walk in the sugar white sands of Santa Rosa Island and the Gulf Islands National Seashore. Our daughters have already signed up to help with wildlife rescue and other clean-up efforts as needed.
Another great product from Cincopa We have many friends along the U.S. Gulf Coast, not all of them human (and no, we are not talking about our photographer and cinematographer colleagues). In addition to the human tragedy of lost lives and livelihoods, we fear for the dolphins, birds, and other wildlife who routinely surround and follow the Bellissema B. Although our hands are absent for a few weeks, our thoughts are with them all.
Cheers,
Lee & Brenda
Genoa, Italy.
I am still concerned that we are not getting reliable rate of spill estimates. They were pegged far too early at 5000 barrels. There are too many conflicting lines of evidence that point to a higher spill rate
There are site reports that one of the ROV units may have plug one of the three major leaks
I will also post a new wave action and turbulence model code to your online folder. The model also provides some insights on oil-dispersant effects. Let’s meet at a pub — or at T5 if BA allows!
Cheers, James
We have some tough deadlines the next two days before we fly back to London (Iceland volcano and winds permitting). It might be a few days before we can approve and respond to additional comments.
As always, we appreciate the excellent comments and suggestions.
I MUST master this technology — the spam to legitimate comments still runs 2:1 in favor of spam. On the upside, I now have a compendium of links to match and dating services in more than 102 countries. When B. dumps me for an Italian painter or French stucco craftsman, I’ll be ready!
Lee — FYI: Check into technology behind fluorometers used to detect dispersed oil below a slick.
Hi Falcon5 (fyi: you must use a real name and email address from now on. We suppress the email address and url links — but only allow anonymous postings from known colleagues working in areas where disclosure could be hazardous)
We are not ignoring anything. A good deal of the work we are doing for clients right now focuses on the dangers of dispersants. You are correct that they can be toxic too. We have mentioned earlier that there will be costs to the clean up (perhaps very heavy costs).
I have deleted your comments about alleged whistleblower reports related to BP and other companies. We are certainly NOT BP defenders — but we are focused on the science and engineering related to the spill.
We are writers, editors, directors and producers. We also act as science advisors to a range of clients. We are not journalists. At best, we engage in editorial commentary (but only when clearly labeled as such). Moreover, especially while working on location, we do not have the resources to verify the information you posted.
As scientists our advice to clients can change as facts change. We try not to rely to preconceived “beliefs” about what may or may not have happened.
There are many good journalists out there. If there the story you suggest is real, they will hunt it down.
If you provide me with a real email address, I will give you links to several professional journalists who might be interested.
I wish you the best.
Cheers,
Lee
Venice, Italy
You are ignoring the environmental devastation already caused by BP spewing 40,000+ gallons of chemically toxic dispersant into the Gulf.
BP and the other corporate… [Comment deleted]
Thank you, Sally.
Thanks for setting me straight. I live, I learn.
Cheers,
Lee
One of the things to watch for in Congressional testimony in the US today is whether BP officials will be asked or admit the fact that they have internal estimates that the oil leak could be as high as 60,000 barrels (2,520,000) gallons a day.
You get stranded much longer and you will never get Brenda to come back!
FWIW –I think you just used the term “ejecta” improperly. Ejecta is the symmetrical apron of debris that surrounds the crater.
Ciao Christina! No trip to Firenze tomorrow. We will finish in Venice. All the documentation we needed was already available to us in ER. We did have a nice drive through northern Toscana on the way. we hope to return this fall if the projects schedules align.
Re the volcanic ash: Aggggggghhhhhhhhhhhhhh! Ack! Thanks for heads up. Your ping woke me up. I am on it! We are one day away from being able to wrap up work in Venice and then this… ACK! I will check geo data to see if Eyjafjallajokull eruption has restrengthened or whether it is due to wind shifts. probably a combination to get fresh high altitude ejecta.
BTW — As soon as I can figure out how to do it –I will move your comment to our “stranded in Europe‘ at http://lernermedia.net/blog/news-commentary/
So this post might might go away at some point.
Cheers,
Lee
Lee — BBC is reporting airspace closures in Ireland due to an ash cloud resurgence.
I hope the oil goes away and maybe you and Brenda will be “stuck” here forever. ;0
Right –and crude ranges in gravity from 9° API to 55° API .
Based on whether the oil is yellow or black (or something orange-ish in-between), experienced hands can give a pretty good eyeball estimate of the degrees API based on color.
This is lighter and more yellowish oil. It can concentrate into gray and blackish globs, but nothing like the Alaskan crude. This Gulf spill oil is also easier to burn.
I am wrong about something every day — but the data clearly indicates that the current Gulf spill oil is lighter crude. The report was probably confused by the degrees API measuring scale. It is an inverse relationship. The higher the API gravity, the lower the oil specific density. At the standardized values calculated at 16°C, API Gravity = (141.5/Specific gravity) – 131.5.
Is the Gulf oil lighter? Is that a fact? One reporter just said that it was degrees heavier? Now I’m confused. I thought it was lighter too.
There are some conflicting reports regarding whether the oil in the Gulf spill, with oil flowing from the well itself is more dangerous than the crude released by the Exxon Valdez?
Ed Overton is a smart guy who knows the Gulf Coast very well. Tapping his experience and expertise is a wise move. Comparisons to the EV Alaska spill are initially valid only in the sense that they give most people numbers they can understand and compare. The oil itself is very different, and the engineering challenges completely unique for each incident. A much more valid comparative model baseline is the Petroleos Mexicanos (PEMEX) Ixtoc spill in the Bahia de Campeche about 30 years ago. That was, IIRC the largest spill until Iraqi forces deliberately dumped oil into the Persian Gulf back in GW1. Back then, of course, we all looked to Red Adair to save the day.
IIRC they also had to reopened the BOP to prevent total destruction. I do not know how the modern stacks compare. Any insights?
Whatever the ultimate extent of the current spill, let’s hope the Gulf rebounds. I keep reminding my European colleagues that the Gulf is a bit more like the Channel ports and Marseilles waterfront than more pristine Alaskan waters. Gulf currents make it more robust too –assuming extensive marsh and wetland damage can be avoided.
I am trying focus our professional interests on the ramifications of the various techniques to disperse the slick. Dispersion carries costs too.
Oil and chemical discharges (not, of course, gushers) are part of the background noise of everyday industrial operations in the Gulf. The pollution baseline for the Gulf and Prince William Sound are vastly different.
Lee– I sent you a link.
Overton was quoted again (I also send link) say that extent of damage is unknown and difficult to calculate and, of course, “… not materialized” He said parallels to EV might not be valid.
Thanks for the tip, Bill.
I know Ed. It’s been a few years but he is the brother of a Gulf Coast neighbor. I’ve been out on his boat several times. I may try to give him a call.
A federal response team — or a federal response team for this spill? Can you send me a link?
Cheers,
Lee
Ferrara, Italy
FYI: Louisiana State University professor Ed Overton, who apparently heads a federal chemical hazard assessment team for oil spills, worries about a total collapse of the pipe inserted into the well. He is quoted in press reports as saying, “If that happens [riser breakage], there would be no warning and the resulting gusher could be even more devastating because regulating flow would then be impossible…When these things go, they go KABOOM…If this thing does collapse, we’ve got a big, big blow.”
The oil spilling into the Gulf is lighter than the Alaskan crude.
Interior Secretary Ken Salazar saying ‘ultimate relief’ was 90 days away but that is pretty optimistic. The engineering challenges remaining are incredibly complex and by no means easy to certain to achieve.
As we noted as soon as first ROV pictures came back, the damages riser may actually be preventing a gusher that could hit 4.4 to 6.8 million barrels a day –especially if, as our experts tell us, the continued flow of oil through the shut off valve can progressively damage the valve. Nothing has been capped this deep (5000 feet). Industry experts argue that attempts to repair the riser could easily make things worse.
I fear that very hard work (with it’s health dangers too) on the shoulders of those involved in the clean up and remediation efforts.
USCG is standing by their estimate of 1.6 million gallons of oil.
Hi Sam,
I honestly think that all the estimates have a high degrees of uncertainty. Experts tell me that the way the BOP is constructed, that any partial flow could lead to progressive failure. I don’t think anyone knows if that is what is behind the higher estimates or whether there was a bolus of oil in the riser, etc. I’m doubtful about the later because expert estimates pegged that at about 9,000 barrels.
It appears that SkyWatch commendably used several challenging models — even using BP’s estimate that 3 percent of the oil slick is 100 microns thick. Skywatch Amos calculated that this part of the spill may already represent 4.5 million gallons of oil. If the remaining 97 percent of the slick is assumed to be 1 micron thick (generally the minimum assumed to produce a “sheen”) that would represent another 1.5 million gallons of oil. that would mean that in just 10 days the spill was already more than halfway toward Exxon Valdez volumes.
Cheers,
Lee
Ferrara, Italy.
John Amos at SkyTruth estimates that 5000 barrels a day is a minimum estimate. Using satellite data, SkyTruth estimates the flow at 20,000 barrels a day.
For water temperature references check NOAA
http://www.nodc.noaa.gov/dsdt/cwtg/egof.html
Difficulty in removal of oil from beaches is also temperature related. It’s also easier to remove from hard-packed sand that it will be from the sugar white sands along Alabama and Florida. While oil on the beach is very bad the impacts can be more economic. the real looming disaster is to wetland ecology.
Another factor to watch is removal of sand by untrained crews. It isn’t a matter of hiring mechanical diggers and letting them go. Penetration into beaches can be made worse by diggers not careful to use techniques that avoid mixing oil with sand. On spill of this scale, it is safe to say that many crews (including locals) will be doing their best, but will also be inexperienced.
Viscosity of any oil spilled decreases as temperature is raised and viscosity (thickness) decreases in colder waters and winter months. What is the temperature of the Gulf Waters?
Most disaster relief experts argue that calling in the military is a prudent move. Our expert engineer colleagues tell us that only the major oil companies have the equipment and capacity to respond to this crisis. Just having Navy ships in the area does nothing because they don’t have the specialized clean up equipment or training needed. However, the military can offer tremendous general logistical support (capacity to move people and materials). The Navy also has some containment booms and experience using same. Rather than risk having too few resources when action is needed, it appears that administration officials and on-scene coordinators want to marshal as many resources as possible and then try to figure out how to best use the resources — it’s just the opposite of the “targeted” Katrina response. In these situations, all the agencies and branches of government and military want to at least appear to be doing something to justify their budget.
Why call in the military? That seems odd and like something else is going on.
Benvenuti, C!
Come sta?
We are in Genoa now (Sunday morning). With the oil spill our schedule is totally dictated by work. I will send a post if the work takes us Firenze. If so it will be Tues or Wed. Probably Toscana to take some pictures and contract an expert for a book, but I am not sure we plan to come into Firenze. We’ve been tot he city many times (one of our daughters went to school there) and the traffic is a lot to fight for lunch. Are you still working for the museum?
We took a walk on May Day to the waterfront festival — it was the only food to be found in town. Interesting that the various political parties had extensive food booths (fundraising, I suppose). It seems you can also vote with your stomach in Italy.
As always, the anarchists were amusing. They had a open air meeting where they wore red shirts (most with a small sash of some sort). How the heck can you be an anarchist if you wear a uniform?
We spoke just enough Italian to make our cab ride home interesting. The driver thought we were fluent and so he let go –a long and vigorous diatribe on the state and problems of the world. During his diatribe he made the symbol for handcuffs (as in “they should be in handcuffs”) when speaking of Obama AND Berlesconi. I’m not sure of his party affiliation, but he wins my heart for his general disregard for politicians of all parties!
Salute!
Lee
Where are you both? Coming to Firenze?
Thanks, Jay. Excellent question!
I wrote one of our experts (who is also a Hurricane Hunter based in MS). He tells me that the estimates of oil thickness still relies on visual estimates. Observers infer thickness based on a number of factors (including color, etc.) There are some developmental sensors in the testing pipeline but he knows of none that are in operational use. The USCG and NOAA are currently coordinating and mapping the thickness. I have a post in to a NASA colleague to find out what satellite technology can do. I’ll post a reply when available
What is being used to measure slick thickness? Data about the slick seems pretty generalized. Reports of the circumference of the slick are deceptive because 90 percent of the oil is in 10 percent of the area. Failure to identify those areas of concentration mean that defense resources can not be properly allocated!!!!!
Hi Kathy,
I hope you are well! Thanks for checking in!
For clarification to others: Ocean Observing System (IOOS) sensors measure real-time information about currents, tidal heights, etc.
IOOS data is certainly critical to smaller spill containment… but I doubt that a failure (if they failed or went down with the rig) makes a difference in a spill this size and duration. I think NASA and NOAA have stepped in with data covering a larger area. There are several other wind and current measuring bouys in the area.
Ron is right that the quick data set reduces uncertainty. My assumption is, however than the Integrated Ocean Observing System (IOOS) sensors were installed on and went down with the Deepwater Horizon. Do you know if that is true?
Thanks, Ron
We are now working In Italy. Eating at the Social Democrats booth at May Day Fair in Genoa. I know nothing of their foreign policy, but they make a great pesto!
Clarification for others: NESDIS is NOAA’s National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service (NESDIS)
Cheers,
Lee
Hey Lee, Give a heads up to NOAA’s NESDIS satellite imagery of a spill incident area. Getting processed analysis less than two hours after data acquisition is pretty amazing to us.
Get home safe and sound.
Nothing is easy at 5000 feet. The pressures are incredible and the ROV arms are not fully dexterous. The technology and equipment needs to be tested and rated for the depth. Experts tell me that there are scenarios (especially with a kinked and damaged riser and apparently inoperative BOP) where one could do great harm and increase the oil flow with a ham-handed “try anything” approach.
Why not use a ROV robotic arm to cap the end of that pipe? In the alternative, could they construct a new riser or some sort of hose to capture the oil ? Seems worth a try!
Human failures are inevitable. In the 11th century English philosopher John Hooker said “human beings are frail and falliable and are prone to mistaken judgement and selfish behaviour.’”
There is a collective responsibility for these disasters through our collective choices related to our standard of living and miscalculation of real social and environmental costs
Good question, Frank.
I don’t know if we can answer that in this space. I probably need to turn off comments while we are on the road and swamped. Can you post this in the forum?
Cheers,
Lee
How much do the safety and environmental laws related to oil rigs vary from state to state and at the federal level? Can the oil companies pick and chose depending on where the rig is located (often in federal waters) or where the company is based? Whatever they are I doubt they compare to the standards for chemical, biological and radioactive research!
Are offshore wells required to have automatic or remotely operated valves that that could immediately shut off the flow in case of an accident. Are the acoustic valves tested for this depth?
Dear Colleagues and Readers,
Comments function for this post are enabled — but because we are on the road (and a bit swamped) it may be several days before I can read, approve, and respond to your post. Please have patience if your comment does not appear as quickly as normal. We have disabled comments for most posts until we master the best way to handle the spam that inevitably dwarfs the excellent comments made by colleagues and guests. Please see our Policies and Guidelines tab at the top of the page.
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Cheers,
Lee